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Understanding Lok Sabha Election Opinion Polls: A Comprehensive Analysis

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Introduction:

Global Attention Is Being Drawn To The Lok Sabha Elections In India, Which Are One Of The Biggest Democratic Processes In History. The Public’s Perspective, Political Tactics, And Election Results Are Significantly Influenced By Opinion Polls Conducted Before To These Elections. We Explore The Complexities Of Lok Sabha Election Opinion Polls In This In-Depth Research, Looking At Their Significance, Techniques, And Effects On Indian Politics.

Recognizing Opinion Surveys:

Opinion Polls Are Statistical Questionnaires Used To Find Out What The General Population Thinks About A Range Of Social, Political, And Economic Topics. These Polls Attempt To Predict The Probable Vote Trends, Seat Distribution, And General Electoral Dynamics In Relation To The Lok Sabha Elections. They Help Voters, Media Outlets, And Political Parties Gauge The General Consensus And Make Defensible Decisions.

Vote share projections
Polling agency Date published Sample size Margin of error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[1] 57,566 ±3–5% 46.6 39.8 13.6 6.8
News 18 March 2024[2] 118,616 ±4% 48 32 20 16
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[3] 41,762[4] ±5% 46 39 15 7
Times Now-ETG March 2024[5] 323,357[6] ±3% 52 42 6 10
Zee News-Matrize February 2024[7] 167,843 ±2% 43.6 27.7 24.9 15.9
India Today-CVoter February 2024[8] 149,092[9] ±3–5% 45 38 17 8
Times Now-ETG February 2024[10] 156,843[11] ±2% 41.8 28.6 29.6 13.2
ABP News-CVoter December 2023[12] 200,000 ±3–5% 42 38 20 4
Times Now-ETG December 2023[13][14] 147,231[15] ±3% 44 39 17 5
India TV-CNX October 2023[16][17] 54,250 ±3% 43.4 39.1 17.5 4.3
Times Now-ETG October 2023[18] 135,100[19] ±3% 42.6 40.2 17.2 2.4
August 2023[20][21] 110,662[22] ±3% 42.6 40.2 17.2 2.4
India Today-CVoter August 2023[23] 160,438 ±3–5% 43 41 16 2
Formation of the big-tent INDIA opposition bloc
India Today-CVoter January 2023[24] 140,917 ±3–5% 43 30 27 13
2019 election results 45.3% 27.5% 27.2% NDA
Seat projections
Polling agency Date published Sample size Margin of error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[1] 57,566 ±3–5% 373 155 15 NDA
Times Now-ETG April 2024[25] 271,292[26] ±3% 384 118 41 NDA
News18 March 2024[27] 118,616[28] ±4% 411 105 27 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[29] 41,762 ±5% 366 156 21 NDA
India TV-CNX March 2024[30] 162,900[31] ±3% 378 98 67 NDA
Times Now-ETG March 2024[32] 323,357 ±3% 358–398 110–130 40–50 NDA
Zee News-Matrize February 2024[7] 167,843 ±2% 377 93 73 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[33] 149,092[34] ±3–5% 335 166 42 NDA
Times Now-ETG February 2024[35] 156,843 ±2% 366 104 73 NDA
ABP-CVoter December 2023[12] 200,000 ±3–5% 295–335 165–205 35–65 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[13][14] 147,231 ±3% 319–339 148–168 52–61 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[16][17] 54,250 ±3% 315 172 56 NDA
Times Now-ETG October 2023[18] 135,100 ±3% 297–317 165–185 57–65 NDA
August 2023[36][21] 110,662 ±3% 296–326 160–190 56–64 NDA
India Today-CVoter August 2023[23] 160,438 ±3–5% 306 193 54 NDA
Formation of the big-tent INDIA opposition bloc
India Today-CVoter January 2023[37] 140,917 ±3–5% 298 153 92 NDA
2019 election results 353 91 99 NDA

Data of States & UTs:

Andaman and Nicobar Islands:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
India TV-CNX April 2024[38] ±3% 1 0 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[39] ±5% 1 0 0 NDA

Andhra Pradesh:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
YSRCP NDA INDIA Others
TDP+ BJP
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[40] ±5% 5 20 0 0 NDA
News 18 March 2024[41] ±3% 7 18 0 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[42] ±5% 5 20 0 0 NDA
TDP+ joins NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[43] ±3–5% 8 17 0 0 0 TDP
Times Now-ETG December 2023[44] ±3% 24–25 0–1 0 0 0 YSRCP
India TV-CNX October 2023[45] ±3% 15 10 0 0 0 YSRCP
Times Now-ETG September 2023[46] ±3% 24–25 0–1 0 0 0 YSRCP
August 2023[47] ±3% 24–25 0–1 0 0 0 YSRCP
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
YSRCP NDA INDIA Others
TDP+ BJP
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[40] ±5% 39.9% 46.7% 13.4% 6.8
News 18 March 2024[41] ±3% 41% 50% 6% 3% 9
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[42] ±5% 42% 45% 3% 10% 3
TDP+ joins NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[43] ±3–5% 41% 45% 2% 3% 9% 4
Times Now-ETG December 2023[44] ±3% 50% 47% 1% 1% 1% 3
India TV-CNX October 2023[45] ±3–5% 46% 42% 2% 2% 8% 4
Times Now-ETG September 2023[46] ±3% 51.1% 36.4% 1.3% 1.1% 10.1% 14.7

Arunachal Pradesh:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[48] ±5% 2 0 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[49] ±5% 2 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[citation needed] ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[citation needed] ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[citation needed] ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
August 2023[citation needed] ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[50] ±5% 63% 32% 5% 31
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[51] ±5% 61% 32% 7% 29

Assam:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA AIUDF Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[52] ±5% 12 2 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[53] ±5% 12 2 0 NDA
India TV-CNX March 2024[54] ±3% 12 1 1 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[55] ±3-5% 12 2 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[56] ±3% 9-11 2-4 0-1 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[57] ±3% 12 1 1 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[58] ±3% 7-9 4-6 0-1 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 9-11 3-4 0-1 NDA
India Today-CVoter August 2023[59] ±3-5% 12 1 1 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA AIUDF Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[60] ±5% 51.8% 35.5% 16.3% 12.7
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[61] ±5% 45% 38% 13% 7
India Today-CVoter February 2024[62] ±3-5% 46% 31% 23% 15
India Today-CVoter August 2023[63] ±3-5% 48% 36% 16% 12

Bihar:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[64] ±3-5% 33 7 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[65] ±5% 32 8 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[66] ±3-5% 32 8 0 NDA
JD(U) leaves INDIA and joins NDA
ABP News-CVoter December 2023[67] ±3-5% 16-18 21-23 0-2 INDIA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[68] ±3% 22-24 15-17 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[69] ±3% 24 16 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[70] ±3% 18-20 20-22 0 INDIA
August 2023[71] ±3% 22-24 16-18 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter August 2023[72] ±3-5% 14 26 0 INDIA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[73] ±3-5% 50.8% 39.9% 9.3% 10.9
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[65] ±5% 50% 35% 15% 15
India Today-CVoter February 2024[66] ±3-5% 52% 38% 10% 14
JD(U) leaves INDIA and joins NDA
India Today-CVoter August 2023[74] ±3-5% 43% 47% 10% 4

Chandigarh:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[75] ±5% 1 0 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[76] ±5% 1 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 1 0 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023 ±3% 1 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023 ±3% 1 0 0 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 1 0 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[77] ±5% 51% 44% 5% 6

Chhattisgarh:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[78] ±3-5% 11 0 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[79] ±5% 11 0 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[80] ±3-5% 10 1 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter December 2023[81] ±3-5% 9-11 0-2 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[82] ±3% 10-11 0-1 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[83] ±3% 7 4 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[84] ±3% 7-9 2-4 0 NDA
August 2023[85] ±3% 6-8 3-5 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter August 2023[86] ±3-5% 10 1 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[78] ±3-5% 54.8% 40.8% 4.4% 14
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[79] ±5% 55% 41% 4% 14
India Today-CVoter February 2024[87] ±3-5% 54% 38% 8% 16
India Today-CVoter August 2023[88] ±3-5% 51% 41% 8% 10

Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[89] ±5% 2 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023 ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023 ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[90] ±5% 52% 19% 29% 23

Goa:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[91] ±5% 1 1 0 Tie
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[92] ±5% 1 1 0 Tie
India TV-CNX March 2024[93] ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[94] ±3-5% 1 1 0 Tie
Times Now-ETG December 2023[95] ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[96] ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[97] ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[91] ±5% 46% 44.9% 9.1% 1.1
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[92] ±5% 45.6% 48.3% 6.1% 2.7
India Today-CVoter February 2024[98] ±3-5% 37% 55% 8% 18

Gujarat:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[99] ±3-5% 26 0 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[100] ±3-5% 26 0 0 NDA
India TV-CNX March 2024[101] ±3% 26 0 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[102] ±3-5% 26 0 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter December 2023 ±3-5% 26 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[103] ±3% 26 0 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[104] ±3% 26 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[105] ±3% 26 0 0 NDA
August 2023[106] ±3% 26 0 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[99] ±3-5% 63% 33.7% 3.3% 29.3
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[100] ±3-5% 64% 35% 1% 29
India Today-CVoter February 2024[107] ±3-5% 62% 26% 12% 36

Haryana:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[108] ±5% 9 1 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[109] ±5% 8 2 0 NDA
JJP leaves the NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[110] ±3-5% 8 2 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[111] ±3% 8-10 0-2 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[112] ±3% 8 2 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[113] ±3% 7-9 1-3 0 NDA
August 2023[113] ±3% 6-8 2-4 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[108] ±5% 53% 38% 9% 15
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[114] ±5% 52% 38% 10% 14
JJP leaves NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[115] ±3-5% 50% 38% 12% 12

Himachal Pradesh:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[116] ±5% 4 0 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[117] ±5% 4 0 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[118] ±3-5% 4 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[119] ±3% 3-4 0-1 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[120] ±3% 3 1 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[121] ±3% 3-4 0-1 0 NDA
August 2023[122] ±3% 3-4 0-1 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[116] ±5% 63% 33.2% 3.8% 29.8
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[117] ±5% 65% 32% 3% 33
India Today-CVoter February 2024[123] ±3-5% 60% 29% 11% 31

Jammu and Kashmir:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
INDIA NDA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[124] ±3-5% 3 2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 2-3 1-3 0-1 I.N.D.I.A.
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[125] ±5% 3 2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India Today-CVoter February 2024[126] ±3-5% 3 2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 2-3 1-3 0-1 I.N.D.I.A.
India TV-CNX October 2023 ±3% 2 2 1 Tie
Times Now-ETG September 2023 ±3% 3-4 1-2 0-1 I.N.D.I.A.
August 2023 ±3% 2-3 1-3 0-1 I.N.D.I.A.
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[127] ±3-5% 47% 44.9% 8.1% 3.1
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[125] ±5% 41.4% 51.5% 7.1% 10.1
India Today-CVoter February 2024[128] ±3-5% 49% 36% 15% 13

Jharkhand:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[129] ±5% 12 2 0 NDA
India TV-CNX March 2024[130] ±3% 13 1 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[131] ±3-5% 12 2 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[132] ±3% 11-13 1-3 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[133] ±3% 13 1 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[134] ±3% 9-11 3-5 0 NDA
August 2023[135] ±3% 10-12 2-4 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[129] ±5% 52% 35% 13% 17
India Today-CVoter February 2024[131] ±3-5% 56% 30% 14% 26

Karnataka:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[136] ±3-5% 23 5 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[137] ±5% 23 5 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[138] ±3-5% 24 4 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter December 2023[139] ±3-5% 22-24 4-6 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[140] ±3% 20-22 6-8 0-1 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[141] ±3% 18 10 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[142] ±3% 18-21 7-9 0 NDA
August 2023[143] ±3% 18-20 8-10 0-1 NDA
India Today-CVoter August 2023[144] ±3-5% 23 5 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[136] ±3-5% 52% 42% 6% 10
Eedina March 2024[145] ±2% 42.4% 43.8% 13.8% 1.4
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[137] ±5% 53% 42% 5% 11
India Today-CVoter February 2024[138] ±3-5% 53% 42% 5% 11
India Today-CVoter August 2023[146] ±3-5% 44% 34% 22% 10

Kerala:

Polling agency Date published[a] Margin of Error Lead
INDIA NDA Others
UDF LDF
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[147] ±3-5% 20 0 0 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Mathrubhumi News-P-MARQ March 2024[148] ±3% 14 5 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
News 18 March 2024[149] ±3% 14 4 2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[150] ±5% 16 4 0 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India TV-CNX March 2024[151] ±3% 11 6 3 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India Today-CVoter February 2024[152] ±3-5% 20 0 0 I.N.D.I.A
Times Now-ETG December 2023[153] ±3% 12-15 3-5 0-1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India TV-CNX October 2023[154] ±3% 16 4 0 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG September 2023[155] ±3% 18-20 0-2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
August 2023[156] ±3% 18-20 0-2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Polling agency Date published[b] Margin of Error Lead
INDIA NDA Others
UDF LDF
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[157] ±3-5% 43% 31% 21% 5% 12
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[150] ±5% 44.5% 31.4% 19.8% 4.3% 13.1
India Today-CVoter February 2024[158] ±3-5% 78% 17% 5% 61
India Today-CVoter August 2023[159] ±3-5% 81% 14% 5% 67

Ladakh:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[160] ±5% 1 0 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[160] ±5% 44% 41% 15% 3

Lakshadweep:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[161] ±5% 0 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India Today-CVoter December 2023 ±3-5% 0 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India TV-CNX October 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG September 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
August 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[162] ±5% 4% 95% 1% 91

Madhya Pradesh:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[163] ±3-5% 28 1 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[164] ±5% 28 1 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[165] ±3-5% 27 2 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter December 2023[166] ±3-5% 27-29 0-2 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[167] ±3% 27-29 0-1 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[168] ±3% 25 4 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[169] ±3% 25-27 2-4 0 NDA
August 2023[170] ±3% 24-26 3-5 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[171] ±3-5% 53% 43.3% 3.7% 9.7
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[164] ±5% 57.9% 40.8% 1.3% 17.1
India Today-CVoter February 2024[172] ±3-5% 58% 38% 4% 20
India Today-CVoter August 2023[173] ±3-5% 48% 41% 11% 7

Maharashtra:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
INDIA NDA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[174] ±3-5% 18 30 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[175] ±5% 20 28 0 NDA
India TV-CNX March 2024[176] ±3% 13 35 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[177] ±3-5% 26 22 0 I.N.D.I.A.
ABP News-CVoter December 2023[178] ±3-5% 26-28 19-21 0-2 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG December 2023[179] ±3% 16-20 27-31 1-2 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[180] ±3% 20 28 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[181] ±3% 16-20 26-30 1-2 NDA
August 2023[182] ±3% 15-19 28-32 1-2 NDA
India Today-CVoter August 2023[183] ±3-5% 28 20 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
INDIA NDA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[184] ±3-5% 30 18 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[175] ±5% 42.1% 42.7% 15.2% 0.6
India Today-CVoter February 2024[185] ±3-5% 45% 40% 15% 5
India Today-CVoter August 2023[183] ±3-5% 45% 40% 15% 5

Manipur:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[186] ±5% 2 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023 ±3% 1 1 0 Tie
Times Now-ETG September 2023 ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[187] ±5% 50% 34% 16% 16

Meghalaya:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
India Today-CVoter February 2024 ±3-5% 1 1 0 Tie
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023 ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023 ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA

Mizoram:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
ZPM NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[188] ±5% 1 0 0 0 ZPM
India Today-CVoter February 2024 ±3-5% 1 0 0 0 ZPM
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 0 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 0 NDA

Nagaland:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[189] ±5% 1 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 1 0 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023 ±3% 1 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023 ±3% 1 0 0 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 1 0 0 NDA

NCT of Delhi:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[190] ±5% 7 0 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[191] ±3-5% 7 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[192] ±3% 6-7 0-1 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[193] ±3% 7 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[194] ±3% 5-6 1-2 0 NDA
August 2023[195] ±3% 5-6 1-2 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter August 2023[196] ±3-5% 7 0 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[190] ±5% 57% 36% 7% 21
India Today-CVoter February 2024[197] ±3-5% 57% 40% 3% 17
India Today-CVoter August 2023[198] ±3-5% 54% 42% 4% 12

Odisha:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
BJD NDA INDIA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[199] ±5% 11 10 0 BJD
India TV-CNX March 2024[200] ±3% 11 10 0 BJD
India Today-CVoter February 2024[201] ±3-5% 11 10 0 BJD
Times Now-ETG December 2023[202] ±3% 13-15 5-7 0-1 BJD
India TV-CNX October 2023[203] ±3% 13 8 0 BJD
Times Now-ETG September 2023[204] ±3% 13-15 5-7 0-1 BJD
August 2023 ±3% 12-14 6-8 0-1 BJD
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
BJD NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[199] ±5% 40.9% 40.2% 13.8% 5.1% 0.7
India Today-CVoter February 2024[201] ±3-5% 41% 40% 12% 7% 1

Puducherry:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[205] ±5% 0 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.

Punjab:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
INDIA NDA SAD Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[206] ±5% 11 1 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India Today-CVoter February 2024[207] ±3-5% 10 2 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
ABP-CVoter December 2023[208] ±3-5% 9-11 0-2 0-2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG December 2023[209] ±3% 6-10 3-5 1-2 0-1 I.N.D.I.A.
India TV-CNX October 2023[210] ±3% 11 1 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG September 2023[211] ±3% 8-11 1-3 1-2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
August 2023[212] ±3% 8-12 1-2 1-2 0-1 I.N.D.I.A.
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
INDIA NDA SAD Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[206] ±5% 57% 16% 17% 10% 40
India Today-CVoter February 2024[207] ±3-5% 65% 17% 18% 47

Rajasthan:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[213] ±5% 25 0 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[214] ±3-5% 25 0 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter December 2023[215] ±3-5% 23-25 0-2 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[216] ±3% 24-25 0-1 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[217] ±3% 23 2 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[218] ±3% 21-24 1-2 0-1 NDA
August 2023[219] ±3% 19-22 2-4 0-1 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[213] ±5% 60% 39% 1% 21
India Today-CVoter February 2024[214] ±3-5% 59% 35% 6% 24

Sikkim:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
SDF NDA INDIA
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[220] ±5% 0 1 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 0 1 0 NDA

Tamil Nadu:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
INDIA AIADMK NDA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[221] ±3-5% 39 0 0 0 I.N.D.I.A.
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[222] ±3-5% 39 0 0 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India Today-CVoter February 2024[223] ±3-5% 39 0 0 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG December 2023[224] ±3% 30-36 3-6 0-1 0-2 I.N.D.I.A.
India TV-CNX October 2023[225] ±3% 32 5 1 1 I.N.D.I.A.
AIADMK leaves NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[226] ±3% 30-34 3-7 0-1 0-1 I.N.D.I.A.
August 2023[227] ±3% 30-34 3-7 0-1 0-1 I.N.D.I.A.
India Today-CVoter August 2023[228] ±3-5% 39 0 0 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
INDIA NDA AIADMK Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[222] ±3-5% 54.7% 10.9% 27.9% 6.8% 26.9
India Today-CVoter February 2024[229] ±3-5% 47% 15% 38% 9
AIADMK leaves NDA
India Today-CVoter August 2023[230] ±3-5% 53% 33% 14% 20

Telangana:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
BRS INDIA NDA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[231] ±5% 1 10 5 1 I.N.D.I.A.
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[232] ±5% 3 10 4 1 I.N.D.I.A.
India Today-CVoter February 2024[233] ±3-5% 3 10 3 1 I.N.D.I.A.
ABP-CVoter December 2023[234] ±3-5% 3-5 9-11 1-3 1-2 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG December 2023[235] ±3% 3-5 8-10 3-5 0-1 I.N.D.I.A.
India TV-CNX October 2023[236] ±3% 8 2 6 1 BRS
Times Now-ETG September 2023[237] ±3% 9-11 3-4 2-3 0-1 BRS
August 2023[238] ±3% 9-11 3-4 2-3 0-1 BRS
India Today-CVoter August 2023[239] ±3-5% 6 7 4 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
BRS INDIA NDA Others
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[231] ±5% 27% 42% 26% 5% 15
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[232] ±5% 28% 43% 25% 4% 15
India Today-CVoter February 2024[233] ±3-5% 29% 41% 21% 9% 12
India Today-CVoter August 2023[240] ±3-5% 37% 38% 23% 2% 1

Tripura:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[241] ±5% 2 0 0 NDA
TMP joins NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023 ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023 ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023 ±3% 2 0 0 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 1-2 0-1 0 NDA

Uttar Pradesh:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA BSP Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[242] ±5% 74 6 0 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[243] ±3-5% 72 8 0 0 NDA
ABP News-CVoter December 2023[244] ±3-5% 73-75 4-6 0-2 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[245] ±3% 70-74 4-8 0-1 1-3 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[246] ±3% 73 7 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[247] ±3% 70-74 4-8 1-3 0-1 NDA
August 2023[248] ±3% 69-73 5-9 0-1 1-3 NDA
India Today-CVoter August 2023[249] ±3-5% 72 8 0 0 NDA
ABP News-Matrize March 2023[250] ±3% 67-73 1-2 0-4 3-6 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA BSP Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[251] ±5% 51% 35% 8% 6% 16
India Today-CVoter February 2024[243] ±3-5% 52% 36% 12% 16
India Today-CVoter August 2023[252] ±3-5% 49% 38% 13% 11

Uttarakhand:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[253] ±5% 5 0 0 NDA
India Today-CVoter February 2024[254] ±3-5% 5 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG December 2023[255] ±3% 4-5 0-1 0 NDA
India TV-CNX October 2023[256] ±3% 5 0 0 NDA
Times Now-ETG September 2023[257] ±3% 4-5 0-1 0 NDA
August 2023 ±3% 4-5 0-1 0 NDA
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
NDA INDIA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[253] ±5% 63% 35% 2% 28
India Today-CVoter February 2024[258] ±3-5% 59% 32% 9% 27

West Bengal:

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
AITC SDA NDA Others
News18 March 2024[259] ±4% 17 0 25 0 BJP
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[260] ±5% 23 0 19 0 AITC
India TV-CNX March 2024[261] ±3% 21 1 20 0 AITC
Zee News-Matrize February 2024[262] ±2% 24 1 17 0 AITC
India Today-CVoter February 2024[263] ±3-5% 22 1 19 0 AITC
Times Now-ETG February 2024[264] ±2% 26 1 15 0 AITC
ABP News-CVoter December 2023[265] ±3-5% 23-25 0-2 16-18 0 AITC
Times Now-ETG December 2023[266] ±3% 20-24 2-4 18-20 0 AITC
India TV-CNX October 2023[267] ±3% 30 2 10 0 AITC
Times Now-ETG August 2023[268] ±3% 22-24 0-3 16-18 0 AITC
Polling agency Date published Margin of Error Lead
AITC BJP SDA Others
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[269] ±5% 42.5% 40.9% 17.6% AITC

Preferred candidate for prime minister:

Polling Agency Date published
Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Others/None/Can’t say
ABP News-CVoter[270] April 2024 58% 16% 26%
The Hindu-CSDS-Lokniti[271] April 2024 48% 27% 25%
Times Now-ETG[272] April 2024 64% 17% 19%
News18[273] March 2024 69% 31% 0%
ABP News-CVoter[274] March 2024 62.7% 27.5% 9.8%
Times Now-ETG[275] February 2024 64% 17% 19%
India Today-CVoter[276] February 2024 54.9% 13.8% 31.3%
ABP News-CVoter[277] December 2023 58.6% 32% 9.4%
India Today-CVoter[278] August 2023 52% 16% 32%
Times Now-ETG[279] July 2023 64% 13% 23%
CSDS-Lokniti[280] May 2023 43.4% 26.8% 29.8%
TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat[281] March 2023 58% 19.9% 22.1%
India Today-CVoter[282] January 2023 53% 14% 33%
India Today-CVoter[283] August 2022 53% 9% 38%
India TV-Matrize[284] July 2022 48% 11% 41%
India Today-CVoter[285] January 2022 52.5% 6.8% 40.7%
India Today-Karvy[286] August 2021 24% 10% 66%
India Today-Karvy[287] January 2021 38% 7% 55%
India Today-Karvy[288] August 2020 66% 8% 26%
ABP News-CVoter[289] January 2020 70% 25.4% 4.6%
India Today-Karvy[290] January 2020 53% 13% 34%

Approval rating:

Central government:

Polling firm Date published Approve Disapprove DK/NA Stronglyapprove Approve Disapprove Stronglydisapprove DK/NA Net Margin of error Samplesize
The Hindu-CSDS-Lokniti[291] April 2024 59% 39% 2% 23% 34% 19% 20% 2% +20% 10,019
ABP News-CVoter[274] March 2024 70.67% 26.67% 2.66% 40.8% 29.87% 26.67% 2.66% +44% ±5% 41,762
CSDS-Lokniti[292] May 2023 54.7% 40.2% 5.1% 17.0% 37.7% 19.4% 20.8% 5.1% +14.5% 7,202

Prime Minister’s performance

Polling firm Date published Approve Disapprove DK/NA Stronglyapprove Approve Disapprove Stronglydisapprove DK/NA Net Margin of error Samplesize
ABP News-CVoter[274] March 2024 77.11% 21.47% 1.42% 51.41% 25.7% 21.47% 1.42% +56% ±5% 41,762

Techniques:

Opinion Polls Use A Variety Of Methods To Collect Data, Such As Exit Polls, Online Questionnaires, In-Person Interviews, And Telephone Surveys. To Guarantee Representative Samples, Sampling Strategies Like Stratified Sampling, Quota Sampling, And Random Sampling Are Used. Using Statistical Techniques, Pollsters Examine The Gathered Data To Produce Predictions And Insights Into The Voting Patterns Of Their Respondents.

Factors Affecting Survey Outcomes:

Numerous Elements Affect The Precision And Dependability Of Survey Results. These Factors Include The Poll’s Timeliness, Sample Size, Demographic Representation, Question Structure, Respondent Bias, And The Political Atmosphere In Place When The Survey Was Conducted. Pollsters Work Hard To Reduce These Influences In Order To Generate Reliable And Useful Results.

Part In The Election Process:

Surveys Of Public Opinion Are Important Throughout The Electoral Process. They Give Political Parties Insightful Information That Aids In The Creation Of Campaign Plans, Resource Allocation, And Constituency Prioritization. Poll Findings Are Used By Media Outlets To Engage Readers And Viewers, Study Electoral Trends, And Contribute To Public Conversation. Opinion Polls Are Also Used By Voters To Evaluate The Performance Of Political Parties And Politicians, Which Has An Impact On Their Choice Of Candidates.

Remarks And Restrictions:

Opinion Polls Are Useful, But They Also Have Drawbacks And Restrictions. Opponents Contend That A Variety Of Factors, Including Leading Questions, Sampling Problems, Methodological Flaws, And Shifting Voter Preferences, Can Have An Impact On Poll Results. Concerns Exist Over How Surveys Affect Voter Behavior As Well, Particularly With Relation To Bandwagon Effects, Strategic Voting, And Complacency Among Party Leaders’ Followers.

Regulatory Structure:

In Order To Guarantee Impartiality, Openness, And Moral Behavior, Opinion Surveys In India Are Subject To Regulatory Control By The Election Commission Of India (Eci). With The Intention Of Preventing Undue Influence And Upholding The Integrity Of The Electoral Process, The Eci Publishes Guidelines Regulating The Release And Dissemination Of Poll Findings During The Election Period.

Historical Angle:

Since The 1980s, Opinion Polls Have Been A Crucial Component Of India’s Electoral Environment, Becoming More And More Popular As Media Proliferated And Liberalization Took Hold. Their Methods, Sophistication, And Public Perception Have All Changed Over Time, Influencing The Narratives And Results Of Subsequent Lok Sabha Elections.

Influence On Political Manoeuvres:

Political Parties And Politicians Frequently Base Their Strategic Decisions On The Findings Of Opinion Polls. Parties Employ Polling Data To Pinpoint Specific Voter Demographics, Pinpoint Swing Constituencies, And Adjust Their Messaging To Appeal To The General Public’s Attitude. Parties Can Adjust Their Campaign Strategy Dynamically By Reallocating Resources And Adjusting Their Electoral Approach By Closely Monitoring Poll Trends.

Public Conversation And Media Representation:

Media Outlets Are Essential In Distributing Polling Data And Influencing The Conversation In The Public Sphere Around Elections. News Reports, Talk Shows, And Panel Discussions Frequently Highlight Poll Results, Which Affects Public Opinion And Political Narratives. But There Is Appropriate Journalism Is Required In Order To Analyze Data, Set Poll Results In Context, And Promote Thoughtful Discussion.

Voter Behavior And Perception:

Voter Perception And Behavior Can Be Influenced By Opinion Surveys In A Number Of Ways. They Act As A Gauge Of Public Opinion, Confirming Or Refuting Preconceived Notions About Political Parties And Politicians. Through Coalition Formation And Strategic Alliances, Poll Results Have The Potential To Affect Voter Confidence, Sway Undecided Voters, And Even Motivate Supporters Of Lagging Parties.

Poll Prediction Difficulties:

The Intricacy Of Indian Politics Makes Electoral Outcome Prediction An Inherent Challenge, Even With Advancements In Polling Methodology. Poll Projections Can Be Distorted By Variables Like Geographical Differences, Caste Dynamics, Alliance Formations, And Last-Minute Changes, Which Could Produce Surprising Outcomes On Election Day. Pollsters Are Always Improving Their Methods To Increase The Precision Of Their Predictions And Dependability.

Public Confidence And Trust:

Opinion Poll Credibility Depends On Preserving Popular Confidence And Trust. In Addition To Correctly Representing The Margin Of Error In Their Findings, Pollsters Are Required To Uphold Ethical Standards And Be Upfront About Their Methodology. Interacting With Stakeholders, Such As Regulatory Agencies, Political Parties, And Media Outlets, Encourages Accountability And Upholds The Integrity Of The Voting Process.

Summary:

Opinion Polls For The Lok Sabha Election Are Useful Resources For Gauging Public Sentiment, Forecasting Results, And Developing Political Agendas. Poll Findings Are A Significant Source Of Information About The Workings Of Indian Democracy, But It Is Important To Interpret Them Cautiously Because Of Their Inherent Limits And The Changing Character Of Electoral Politics. Opinion Surveys Can Be Beneficial When They Respect Moral Principles, Embrace Methodological Rigor, And Promote Positive Communication Keep Enhancing India’s Democratic Dialogue, Supporting Informed Decision-Making And Participatory Government.

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