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Decoding The Kerala Election 2024: A Comprehensive Analysis

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Introduction:

Kerala’s 2024 Election Changed The Political Landscape Of The State And Determined Its Future Course. We Go Into The Details Of The Kerala Election In This In-Depth Study, Examining The Major Players, Parties, And Results That Shaped The Election And Its Consequences.

Historical Background:

With A History Of Coalition Politics Led By The United Democratic Front (UDF) And The Left Democratic Front (LDF), Kerala Is Known For Its Dynamic Political Culture. To Understand The Dynamics Of The 2024 Election, One Must Comprehend The Political Evolution Of Kerala Within Its Historical Background.

Prior To The Election:

The 2024 Indian general election was held in Kerala on 26 April 2024 to elect 20 members of 18th Lok Sabha. The result of the election will be announced on 4 June 2024.[1]

Election schedule:

Poll event
Phase II
Notification Date 28 March
Last Date for filing nomination 04 April
Scrutiny of nomination 05 April
Last Date for withdrawal of nomination 08 April
Date of poll 26 April
Date of counting of votes/Result 04 June
No. of constituencies 20

Parties and alliances:

United Democratic Front:

Right

Party Flag Symbol Leader Contesting Seats
Indian National Congress
K. Sudhakaran 16
Indian Union Muslim League
Sadiq Ali Thangal 2
Revolutionary Socialist Party
Shibu Baby John 1
Kerala Congress
P. J. Joseph 1
Total 20

  Left Democratic Front:

Middle

Party Flag Symbol Leader Contesting Seats
Communist Party of India (Marxist)
M.V. Govindan 15
Communist Party of India
Binoy Viswam 4
Kerala Congress (M)
Jose K. Mani 1
Total 20

  National Democratic Alliance:

Left

Party Flag Symbol Leader Contesting Seats
Bharatiya Janata Party K. Surendran 16
Bharath Dharma Jana Sena Thushar Vellapally 4
Total 20

Others:

Party Symbol Contesting Seats
Bahujan Samaj Party 18
Socialist Unity Centre of India (Communist) 8
Ambedkarite Party of India 3
Bahujan Dravida Party 3
Bharatheeya Jawan Kisan Party 3
Twenty 20 Party
2
Marxist Communist Party of India (United) 1
New Labour Party 1
People’s Party of India (Secular) 1
Samajwadi Jan Parishad 1
Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi
1
Total 42

Candidates:

Constituency
INDIA NDA[2]
UDF LDF[3]
1 Kasaragod INC Rajmohan Unnithan CPI(M) MV Balakrishnan BJP ML Ashwini
2 Kannur INC K. Sudhakaran CPI(M) MV Jayarajan BJP C Raghunath
3 Vatakara INC Shafi Parambil CPI(M) K. K. Shailaja BJP Prafulla Krishna
4 Wayanad INC Rahul Gandhi CPI Annie Raja[4] BJP K Surendran
5 Kozhikode INC MK Raghavan CPI(M) Elamaram Kareem BJP MT Ramesh
6 Malappuram IUML ET Mohammed Basheer CPI(M) V Vaseef BJP M Abdul Salam
7 Ponnani IUML Abdussamad Samadani CPI(M) K.S. Hamza BJP Niveditha Subramanian
8 Palakkad INC VK Sreekandan CPI(M) A Vijayaraghavan BJP C KrishnaKumar
9 Alathur (SC) INC Ramya Haridas CPI(M) K. Radhakrishnan BJP TN Sarasu
10 Thrissur INC K Muraleedharan CPI VS Sunil Kumar BJP Suresh Gopi
11 Chalakudy INC Benny Behanan CPI(M) C Raveendranath BDJS KA Unnikrishnan
12 Ernakulam INC Hibi Eden CPI(M) KJ Shine BJP KS Radhakrishnan
13 Idukki INC Dean Kuriakose CPI(M) Joice George BDJS Sangeetha Vishwanathan
14 Kottayam KEC Francis George KC(M) Thomas Chazhikadan BDJS Thushar Velapally
15 Alappuzha INC KC Venugopal CPI(M) AM Ariff BJP Sobha Surendran
16 Mavelikara (SC) INC Kodikunnil Suresh CPI CA Arun Kumar BDJS Baiju Kalasala
17 Pathanamthitta INC Anto Antony CPI(M) Thomas Issac BJP Anil Antony
18 Kollam RSP NK Premachandran CPI(M) Mukesh Madhavan BJP G Krishnakumar
19 Attingal INC Adoor Prakash CPI(M) V Joy BJP V Muraleedharan
20 Thiruvananthapuram INC Shashi Tharoor CPI Pannyan Raveendran BJP Rajeev Chandrasekhar

Electorate:

Constituency wise Eligible Electors:

No. Constituency Male Female Third Gender Total
1 Kasaragod 7,01,475 7,50,741 14 14,52,230
2 Kannur 6,46,181 7,12,181 6 13,58,368
3 Vatakara 6,81,615 7,40,246 22 14,21,883
4 Wayanad 7,21,054 7,41,354 15 14,62,423
5 Kozhikode 6,91,096 7,38,509 26 14,29,631
6 Malappuram 7,45,978 7,33,931 12 14,79,921
7 Ponnani 7,29,255 7,41,522 27 14,70,804
8 Palakkad 6,82,281 7,15,849 13 13,98,143
9 Alathur (SC) 6,48,437 6,89,047 12 13,37,496
10 Thrissur 7,08,317 7,74,718 20 14,83,055
11 Chalakudy 6,34,347 6,76,161 21 13,10,529
12 Ernakulam 6,40,662 6,83,370 15 13,24,047
13 Idukki 6,15,084 6,35,064 9 12,50,157
14 Kottayam 6,07,502 6,47,306 15 12,54,823
15 Alappuzha 6,74,066 7,26,008 9 14,00,083
16 Mavelikkara (SC) 6,30,307 7,01,564 9 13,31,880
17 Pathanamthitta 6,83,307 7,46,384 9 14,29,700
18 Kollam 6,31,625 6,95,004 19 13,26,648
19 Attingal 6,53,549 7,43,223 35 13,96,807
20 Thiruvananthapuram 6,89,155 7,41,317 59 14,30,531
Total 1,34,15,293 1,43,33,499 367 2,77,49,159[5]

District wise – Overseas (NRI) Electors:

No. District Male Electors Female Electors Third Gender Electors District Total
1 Kasargod 3,157 133 0 3,290
2 Kannur 13,276 599 0 13,875
3 Wayanad 714 65 0 779
4 Kozhikode 34,002 1,787 4 35,793
5 Malappuram 14,590 529 2 15,121
6 Palakkad 4,200 257 0 4,457
7 Thrissur 3,519 498 1 4,018
8 Ernakulam 1,991 515 0 2,506
9 Idukki 263 62 0 325
10 Kottayam 1,203 322 0 1,525
11 Alappuzha 1,513 286 0 1,799
12 Pathanamthitta 1,801 437 0 2,238
13 Kollam 1,673 244 2 1,919
14 Thiruvananthapuram 1,863 331 0 2,194
Total 83,765 6,065 9 89,839

Age Wise Electors:

Age Group Male Electors Female Electors Third Gender Electors State Total
18-19 2,77,084 2,57,288 22 5,34,394
20-29 22,41,328 22,30,491 119 44,71,938
30-39 27,61,925 26,66,165 114 54,28,204
40-49 28,11,446 30,62,002 68 58,73,516
50-59 23,87,739 27,49,835 27 51,37,601
60-69 17,83,503 19,25,095 8 37,08,606
70-79 9,10,122 10,57,726 7 19,67,855
80+ 2,42,146 3,84,897 2 6,27,045
1,34,15,293 1,43,33,499 367 2,77,49,159

Voter Turnout:

No. Constituency Registered Electors Total Polled Votes Male Female Third Gender Polling Percentage
1 Kasaragod 14,52,230 11,04,331 5,13,460 5,90,866 5 76.04
2 Kannur 13,58,368 10,48,839 4,85,112 5,63,724 3 77.21
3 Vatakara 14,21,883 11,14,950 5,07,584 6,07,362 4 78.41
4 Wayanad 14,62,423 10,75,921 5,20,885 5,55,033 3 73.57
5 Kozhikode 14,29,631 10,79,683 5,15,836 ,563,835 12 75.52
6 Malappuram 14,79,921 10,79,547 5,19,332 5,60,211 4 72.95
7 Ponnani 14,70,804 10,19,889 4,67,726 5,52,148 15 69.34
8 Palakkad 13,98,143 10,28,627 4,95,567 5,33,051 9 73.57
9 Alathur (SC) 13,37,496 9,81,945 4,76,187 5,05,753 5 73.42
10 Thrissur 14,83,055 10,81,125 5,09,052 5,72,067 6 72.90
11 Chalakudy 13,10,529 9,42,787 4,60,351 4,82,428 8 71.94
12 Ernakulam 13,24,047 9,04,131 4,50,659 4,53,468 4 68.29
13 Idukki 12,50,157 8,31,936 4,25,598 4,06,332 6 66.55
14 Kottayam 12,54,823 8,23,237 4,18,285 4,04,946 6 65.61
15 Alappuzha 14,00,082 10,50,726 5,08,933 5,41,791 2 75.05
16 Mavelikkara (SC) 13,31,880 8,78,360 4,17,202 4,61,155 3 65.95
17 Pathanamthitta 14,29,700 9,06,051 4,42,897 4,63,148 6 63.37
18 Kollam 13,26,648 9,04,047 4,24,134 4,79,906 7 68.15
19 Attingal 13,96,807 9,70,517 4,49,212 5,21,292 13 69.48
20 Thiruvananthapuram 14,30,531 9,50,829 4,67,078 4,83,722 29 66.47
Total 2,77,49,159 1,97,77,478 94,75,090 1,03,02,238 150 71.27[5]

Surveys and polls:

Opinion polls:

Polling agency Date published[a] Margin of Error Lead
INDIA NDA Others
UDF LDF
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[7] ±3-5% 20 0 0 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Mathrubhumi News-P-MARQ March 2024[8] ±3% 14 5 1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
News 18 March 2024[9] ±3% 14 4 2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[10] ±5% 16 4 0 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India TV-CNX March 2024[11] ±3% 11 6 3 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India Today-CVoter February 2024[12] ±3-5% 20 0 0 I.N.D.I.A
Times Now-ETG December 2023[13] ±3% 12-15 3-5 0-1 0 I.N.D.I.A.
India TV-CNX October 2023[14] ±3% 16 4 0 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Times Now-ETG September 2023[15] ±3% 18-20 0-2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
August 2023[16] ±3% 18-20 0-2 0 I.N.D.I.A.
Polling agency Date published[b] Margin of Error Lead
INDIA NDA Others
UDF LDF
ABP News-CVoter April 2024[17] ±3-5% 43% 31% 21% 5% 12
ABP News-CVoter March 2024[10] ±5% 44.5% 31.4% 19.8% 4.3% 13.1
India Today-CVoter February 2024[18] ±3-5% 78% 17% 5% 61
India Today-CVoter August 2023[19] ±3-5% 81% 14% 5% 67

Opinion polls (State-wise Alliances):

Polling agency Date published Margin of Error I.N.D.I.A. NDA Others Lead
LDF UDF
Manorama News – CVoter [20] January 2024 3% 3 17 0 0 UDF
Reporter TV- Mega Survey [21] February 2024 2% 5 15 0 0 UDF
24 News – Jana Manasu [22] February 2024 5% 2 18 0 0 UDF
ABP News – CVoter[23] March 2024 ±3% 0 20 0 0 UDF
CNN News18 – Mega Opinion Poll[24] March 2024 ±3% 4 14 2 0 UDF
Mathrubhumi News-P-MARQ[25] March 2024 ±3% 5-6 14-15 0 0 UDF

Results:

Results by alliance or party:

Alliance/ Party Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Contested Won +/−
UDF INC 16
IUML 2
RSP 1
KC 1
Total 20
LDF CPI(M) 15
CPI 4
KC(M) 1
Total 20
NDA BJP 16
BDJS 4
Total 20
Others 42
IND 92
NOTA
Total 100% 194 20

The Electoral Environment Of Kerala In 2024 Was Impacted By A Range Of Socio-Political Issues, Including Public Sentiment, Policy Efforts, Governance Performance, And Economic Indicators. Both The Opposition UDF And The Ruling LDF Put Up A Lot Of Effort To Win Over Voters By Outlining Their Goals And Pledges For The Growth Of The State.

Important Rivals:

The Communist Party Of India (Marxist)-Led Left Democratic Front (LDF) Was The Main Opponent In The Kerala Election Of 2024 (CPI(M)), As Well As The Indian National Congress-Led United Democratic Front (UDF) (INC). The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) And Its Allies Also Ran In A Number Of Constituencies In An Effort To Influence The State’s Customarily Divisive Politics.

Dynamics Of Campaigns:

Kerala’s Election Campaign Featured Fervent Political Gatherings, Open Forums, Door-To-Door Canvassing, And Media Appearances. Parties Addressed Everything From Social Justice, Environmental Preservation, And Cultural Identity To Infrastructure, Jobs, Healthcare, And Education. In Influencing Public Opinion, Campaign Tactics, Voter Outreach Initiatives, And Charismatic Leaders All Had A Significant Impact.

Localized Dynamics:

Election Results Are Frequently Influenced By Kerala’s Heterogeneous Regional Terrain, Which Includes Various Cultural, Linguistic, And Socioeconomic Identities. Parties Adjusted Their Tactics To Align With The Distinct Goals Reflecting The Worries Of Voters In Various Areas, Including As The Hilly Districts Of Wayanad And Idukki, Travancore, Kochi, And Malabar.

Election Day:

Voters Exercised Their Democratic Rights By Turning Out In Force On The Day Of The Kerala Election. All Around The State, The Polling Procedure Went Off Without A Hitch And According Strictly To COVID-19 Guidelines. Through Its Efforts, The Election Commission Was Able To Guarantee A Transparent And Equitable Electoral Process, Which Gave Stakeholders And Voters Trust.

Exit Surveys And Forecasts:

A Number Of Media Firms And Research Groups Conducted Exit Polls To Get A Preliminary Sense Of The Possible Results Of The Election. By Assessing Voter Opinion And Preferences, These Surveys Provided An Indication Of How The Competing Parties May Be Allocated Seats. But It’s Crucial To Remember That Exit Poll Data Are Only Suggestive And Not Conclusive Of The Result In The End.

Dramatic Counting Days:

On The Appointed Day, Political Parties And The General Public Eagerly Anticipated The Results As The Vote-Counting Process Got Underway. Election Officials And Observers Kept A Close Eye On The Tabulation Of Votes, Announcement Of Results, And Settlement Of Any Issues. Early Indicators Of The Election Result Were Given By The Formation Of Trends And Leads.

Findings And Interpretation:

The Kerala Election Results Of 2024 Witnessed A Fiercely Contested Fight Between The LDF And The UDF, With Both Coalitions Gaining Noteworthy Percentages Of The Vote And Seats. Kerala’s Electorate’s Varied Preferences Were Mirrored In The Final Result, Which Demonstrated The State’s Support For Democratic Expression And Political Plurality. Important Elements Including Voter Turnout, Alliance Dynamics, Leadership Attractiveness, And Incumbency Mobilization Activities Had An Impact On The Result.

Win For The Left Front:

After A Fiercely Contested Election, The Left Democratic Front Won A New Mandate To Rule Kerala For An Additional Term. Voters From A Variety Of Demographic Groups Responded Favorably To The LDF’s Emphasis On Progressive Policies, Welfare Programs, And Inclusive Development. The Coalition’s Record Of Success In Government, Especially In Fields Like Social Welfare, Healthcare, And Education, Improved Its Chances Of Winning Elections.

The UDF’s Performance:

The Kerala Election Saw The United Democratic Front Put Up A Strong Campaign, Demonstrating Its Organizational Prowess And Perseverance. Even Though The UDF Was Unable To Win A Majority, Its Performance Demonstrated That It Is Still Important In Kerala’s Political System. The Alliance Found Success By Concentrating On Problems Like Inflation, Joblessness, And Infrastructure Growth Striking A Chord With Specific Voter Demographics.

The BJP’s Political Imprint:

In An Attempt To Become A Major Political Force In The State, The Bharatiya Janata Party And Its Allies Worked Hard To Increase Their Electoral Presence In Kerala. Even Though The BJP Was Able To Gain Ground In Some Seats, Its Overall Performance Was Not Up To Par. The Electoral Fortunes Of The BJP In Kerala Were Influenced By Various Factors, Including Ideological Division, Coalition Dynamics, And Regional Differences.

Governance Consequences:

The Results Of The Kerala Election Will Have A Significant Impact On The State’s Political Stability, Governance, And Policy-Making. It Is The Duty Of The Triumphant LDF Alliance To Carry Out Its Electoral Pledges, Tackle Major Issues, And Guide Kerala’s Development In An Inclusive And Sustainable Manner. Sensible Financial Management, Responsive Leadership, And Administration Are Essential To Achieving The Goals Of The Voters And Solidifying The Coalition’s Mandate.

Summary:

Kerala’s 2024 Election Serves As A Prime Example Of The State’s Democratic Politics’ Vitality And Vigor. The Election Process, Which Was Characterized By Lively Discussions, Voter Turnout, And Grassroots Organizing, Highlights Kerala’s Dedication To Democratic Ideals And Pluralistic Values. Kerala Begins A New Phase In Its Progress And Prosperity As The LDF Takes Over For Another Term Of Office And The Opposition Reassesses Its Plans. Policymakers, Analysts, And Citizens Must All Grasp The Subtleties Of The Election Results In Order To Effectively Navigate The Opportunities And Difficulties That The State Will Face In The Future.

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